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Universidade Fernando Pessoa

Porto, Portugal

Plate 66- “Temperature increases are taking place over the world”, a typical sentence of Al Gore (American environmental activist, author, businessperson, former politician, former journalist and the forty-fifth Vice President of the United States from 1993 to 2001 under President Bill Clinton. C. Horner (2007) commented such a sentence as follows: "This is certainly true if by this Al Gore means temperature is increasing someplace, the world over. It is absurdly fraudulent if by this he intends to claim, as it appears, that temperatures are increasing all over the world. Some areas are cooling just as some are warming; some are getting wetter as some are getting drier and so on. That's the way how climate has worked and will continue to work". Indeed, global warming alarmism relies on claim of increased average temperatures among those places we measure.

Plate 67- On the Earth, the average global temperature for the period of 1947-2007 (http://www.lavoisier.com.au/articles/greenhouse-science/climate-change/Quirk2007.pdf) ranged between -53° and 33°C. The concept of global average temperature it is not evident when one says 15°C. In France, the average temperature is around 14° C, i.e., it is exceeded by more than half of the planet. As pointed out by J. Laherrere (Réflexions d’un géologue-géephysicien sur les changements climatiques et les prévisions énérgétiques avec beaucoup d’imager à mediter, 2007), 15° C corresponds to 50% of the Earth's surface and it will be advantageous to differentiate land and sea. Anyway, taking into account the range of the temperatures on the Earth, the 4° C increasing predicted by the IPCC, which is intolerable for some, seems inconsequential. It is less than a move from Lille to Marseille. Some "alarmists" (http://www. guardian.co.uk/education/ 2003/may/29/research.higher-education2) predict that the average global temperatures could be 5.5° C higher by 2100. However, it seems that they will have a lot of problems with their predictions: "You need to look at more than just greenhouse gases" (Hadley team Chris Jones). It appears now, for them, that sulphates is the most significant factors: "These atmospheric pollutants, released by the burning of coal and oil in the 20th century, cool the planet by reflecting sunlight. So as sulphate emissions fall due to clean-air regulations warming will actually increase". I understand that certain folks are completely lost by the alarmist propaganda and, as said by the New York Times columnist N. Kristof (March 12, 2005): "The fundamental problem, as I see it, is that environmental groups are too often alarmists. They have an awful terrible record, so they've lost credibility with the public.....I'm now skeptical of the I have a Nightmare speechs....Environmental alarms have been screeching for so long that, like car alarms, they are now just irritating background noise" (quoted by C. Horner, 2007).

Plate 68- The Milankovitch theory or astronomical theory of climate changes is an explanation for changes in the seasons, which result from changes in the earth's orbit around the sun. The theory is named for Serbian astronomer Milutin Milankovitch, who calculated the slow changes in the earth's orbit by careful measurements of the position of the stars, and through equations using the gravitational pull of other planets and stars. He determined that the earth wobbles in its orbit. The earth's tilt is what causes seasons, and changes in the tilt of the earth change the strength of the seasons. The seasons can also be accentuated or modified by the eccentricity of the orbital path around the sun, and the precession effect, the position of the solstices in the annual orbit. Orbital changes occur over thousands of years, and the climate system may also take thousands of years to respond to orbital forcing. Theory suggests that the primary driver of ice ages is the total summer radiation received in northern latitude zones where major ice sheets have formed in the past, near 65° N. Past ice ages correlate well to 65° N summer insulation (Imbrie, J. et al. in Milankovitch and Climate Pt l , eds Berger, A., Imbrie, J., Hays, J., Kukla, G. & Saltzmen, B., 269−305, Reidel, Boston, 1984). Astronomical calculations show that 65° N summer insulation should increase gradually over the next 25 k years, and that no 65° N summer insulation declines sufficient to cause an ice age are expected in the next 50-100k years (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/milankovitch.html).

Plate 69- The tilt of Earth relative to its plane of travel about the sun is what causes seasons. The hemisphere pointing toward the sun is in summer, while the opposite hemisphere is in winter. Earth makes one full orbit around the sun each year. The northern hemisphere is in summer in the left image, while 6 months later the southern hemisphere has summer, as in the center image. If Earth's axis were straight up and down relative to the orbital plane, as in the right-hand image, there would be no seasons, since every point on the earth would receive the same amount of sun each day of the year. Changes in the tilt of Earth can change the severity of the seasons - more tilt means more severe seasons (warmer summers and colder winters); less tilt means less severe seasons (cooler summers and milder winters). Earth wobbles in space so that its tilt changes between about 22° and 25° on a cycle of about 41 ky. It is the cool summers, which are thought to allow snow and ice to last from year to year in high latitudes, eventually building up into massive ice sheets. There are positive feedbacks in the climate system as well, because an earth covered with more snow reflects more of the sun's energy into space, causing additional cooling. In addition, it appears that the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere falls as ice sheets grow, also adding to the cooling of the climate. Earth's orbit around the sun is not quite circular, which means that the earth is slightly closer to the sun at some times of the year than others. The closest approach of the earth to the sun is called perihelion, and it now occurs in January, making northern hemisphere winters slightly milder. This change in timing of perihelion is known as the precession of the equinoxes, and occurs on a period of 22 ky. Eleven thousand years ago, perihelion occurred in July, making the seasons more severe than today. The eccentricity of the earth's orbit varies on cycles of 100 ky and 400 ky, and this affects how important the timing of perihelion is to the strength of the seasons. The combination of the 41 ky tilt cycle and the 22 ky precession cycles, plus the smaller eccentricity signal, affect the relative severity of summer and winter, and are thought to control the growth and retreat of ice sheets. Cool summers in the northern hemisphere, where most of the earth's land mass is located, appear to allow snow and ice to persist to the next winter, allowing the development of large ice sheets over hundreds to thousands of years. Conversely, warmer summers shrink ice sheets by melting more ice than the amount accumulating during the winter (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ milankovitch.html).

Plate 70- This plate depicts the successive paleogeographies during the Paleozoic till the formation of the supercontinent Pangea. Two major events took place: (i) the closure of the Iapetus Sea (formation of the Old Red Sandstone continent, i.e., Caledonian orogeny) and (ii) the closure of the Rheic Sea (onset of the Hercynian orogeny). Indeed, all paleogeographic reconstitutions assume, during the Lower Paleozoic, the opening of the Iapetus and Rheic seas and their closure in the Permo-Triassic. Perroud (1990) suggested: a) The Iapetus (ocean between Laurentia and Baltica) and the Rheic (ocean between the Baltica and South Europe-Africa) reached their maximum width; b) Since the Ordovician, Iapetus sea was progressively closed as the Laurentia and Baltica continents approached one the other; c) During the Devonian, Iapetus sea closed with the formation of the Old Red Sandstone continent (Caledonian-Taconian orogeny; d) The Rheic sea disappeared just towards the end Paleozoic with the advent of the Hercynian orogeny. In 1995, J.W.D. Dalzie (Earth Before Pangea, Scientific American, January, pp. 58-63) proposed a similar geological evolution: (1) Breakup of Precambrian supercontinent (Rodhinia or Proto-Pangea), in Upper Proterozoic; (2) Laurentia (North America) and Baltica (North Europe) detached from the supercontinent, in Late Proterozoic; Iapetus and Rheic started to open as Baltica and Laurentia pull apart; (3) Laurentia and Baltica were at maximal distance in Middle Cambrian; (4) Laurentia collided with South America (Taconian orogeny) in Middle Ordovician; (5) At end Ordovician, Laurentia separated again; Baltica collided with Laurentia in Middle Silurian with formation of the Old Red Sandstone continent; (6) At beginning Permian, the Laurentia/Baltica continent collided with the Gondwana with formation of the Supercontinent Pangea. Obviously, due to the different positions the different continents occupied in relation to the Earth's poles, long term climate changes are evident.

Plate 71- The Pangea supercontinent, formed ±200 Ma, has an irregular shape. It was surrounded by a universal ocean -Panthalassa- (ancestor of the Pacific Ocean). The Tethys Sea, between Gondwana and Eurasia, was the ancestor of a part of the Mediterranean Sea. Glacial deposits were found in South America, Africa, India and Australia. They corroborate the assumption of a single continental glacial mass on the South Pole of Gondwana, towards end Paleozoic. The opening of rifts and the emplacement of lava flows announced the breakup of the Pangea. Since the breakup till today, the major events can be summarized as follows: (i) At the beginning of Jurassic, ±180 Ma: (i.a) Atlantic Ocean was partially open; (i.b) Tethys sea had begun its closing; (i.c) Laurasia separated from Gondwana creating a new ocean; (i.d) India began its long displacement northward; (ii) End Jurassic, around 140 Ma: (ii.a) Birth of the Southern Atlantic Ocean; (ii.b) The Northern Atlantic and Indian Ocean widened; (ii.c) The closing of Tethys sea progressed; (ii.d) India continued to migrate northward; (iii) End Cretaceous, i.e., ±65 Ma: (iii.a) Southern Atlantic Ocean was largely developed; (iii.b) Madagascar separated from Africa; (iii.c) Tethys closed creating a marginal sea - Mediterranean Sea; (iii.d) The current configuration of the continents was perceptible; (iv) During the Cenozoic: (iv.a) India collided with Asia; (iv.b) Australia separated from the Antarctic; (iv.c) Africa approached Europe inducing the Alpine orogeny. This geological evolution implies significant climate change not only due to movement of the continents but alteration of the marine currents as well.

Plate 72- A lot of French scientists, as Profs. R. Vivian do not believe in global warming. Profs. M. Leroux consider global warming as a myth (http://meteo.lcd.lu/globalwarming/Leroux/dossier_leroux_climat.pdf): "Speaking to me about warming, surely you want make fear, but I lived 40 years in Africa! Personally, I prefer a warming Earth. Russia has the same position, because it considers that a global warming would be beneficial. In fact, a global warming would bring us large savings in heating and so in raw materials like petroleum. On the other hand, we would gain immense cultivable terrains on the sub-polar areas, as it was the case between 1930 and 1960. At the time, the farms of the north of Canada and Scandinavia expanded northward. On the contrary, in the 70's, when the return of the "Little Ice Age" was in all mouths, the farms retrogressed southward. The same thing happened in sub-Saharan Africa, where the farmers first expanded northward and then retrogressed southward, when the dryness started in the 70's. In fact, during a warm period, in a paleoclimate or climate scale, tropical rains are more abundant. What paradoxically means, that is global warming was really effective, the dryness would cease in the Sahel, but unfortunately, it is not the case". D. B. Boktin (http://online.wsj.com/article /SB11925 8265537661384.html) said: "Global warming doesn't matter except to the extent that it will affect life -- ours and that of all living things on Earth. And contrary to the latest news, the evidence that global warming will have serious effects on life is thin. Most evidence suggests the contrary...... My concern is that we may be moving away from an irrational lack of concern about climate change to an equally irrational panic about it. Many of my colleagues ask, "What's the problem? Hasn't it been a good thing to raise public concern?" The problem is that in this panic we are going to spend our money unwisely, we will take actions that are counterproductive, and we will fail to do many of those things that will benefit the environment and ourselves".

Plate 73- Let's see what Profs. M. Leroux (1923 - 1992) said on this subject in (Le réchauffement climatique est un myth- in Agriculture et Environment, n° 18 Octobre 2004): "Predicting climate has been always a passion. However, predicting that nothing alarming will occur is not very interesting. At the beginning of the 20th century, the alarmist predictions were already quite frequent. Nevertheless, they never succeeded to be accepted, since all the facts contradicted them. They reappeared in 1985, when data processing specialists with scenarios more catastrophic monopolized climatology. Forgetting meteorology, model makers applied extremely simplistic calculations in super sophisticated models to impose their ideas. However, the global warming assumptions were never checked by observations, not only in beginning of the 20th century but in beginning of 21st century as well. The famous IPCC's curve ("Hockey Stick Curve") is just an artefact, constantly refuted by measurements and satellite observations. On the other hand, the climate problem is permanently confused with that of pollution, two fields well separated and that can just be well studied when dissociated. Climate problem is also used as pretext to impose restrictions on the human activity, which is wrongly considered as the origin of the global warming. The connection of interest established between certain laboratories, several international institutions and certain politicians imposed the concept of global warming. Following blindly the IPCC's "Summary for Policymakers" it is ignore the real phenomena, spending vainly colossal sums of money in useless meetings, preventing effective actions against true climatic risks. Global warming resembles, more and more, to a scientific imposture, whose first victims are the climatologists themselves who perceive financing just when their works corroborate the IPCC's dogmas..

Plate 74- One of the global warming myths is that the glaciers are melting. Yes they are melting but the facts are not so simple. "As good fortune has it, frozen things do in fact melt or at least recede after cooling periods mercifully end. The glacial retreat we read about is selective, however. Glaciers are also advancing all over, including lonely glaciers nearby their more popular retreating neighbours. If glaciers retreating were proof of global warming then glaciers advancing are evidence of global cooling, they cannot both be true and in fact neither is. Also, retreat often seems unrelated to warming, for example, the snow cap on Mount Kilimanjaro is receding despite decades of cooling in Kenya - due to regional land use and atmospheric moisture changes. It should be evident, but it is not the case, that such a features as the melting of glaciers or the disappearing of ice in Arctic, although interesting, are inappropriate to clarify the global warming causes. A significant warming, anthropogenic or natural, will cause glaciers to retreat (generally quite slowly). The concept of anthropogenic global warming is anthropogenic is supported by similar facts, where effects and causes are simply indistinct. In addition, the mass variations of a glacier are function of a large number of parameters other than temperature, such for instance precipitations (C. C. Horner, 2007 in "The Politically Incorrect Guide to Global Warming and Environmentalism" Regnery Publishing, Inc., Washington).

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